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07-25-11 | Broad Base Market vs Pricing Factors
In my last blog I discussed pricing and why I felt pricing was going to continue to increase. I mentioned the uncertainty of the economy, rising debt, and a much broader base of collectors/investors who purchase these Modern Chinese coins and take them off the market along with several other variables. I did not mention specific buying/selling venues like ebay. At one time, not that long ago, a person selling Modern Chinese coins would know almost every seller and many of the buyers. Not today! Today there are about 9700 items in the Modern Chinese coin section. There are so many buyers and sellers that it would be virtually impossible to know everyone. A few years ago there were less than 6000 Modern Chinese coins for sale. What is important to take into consideration is the change in listing regulations. A few years ago, a seller could list 20 of the exact same item. This is not allowed today. This means the 6000 items could have been reduced to 5500 by today's standards. This also means the amount of items listed today vs several years ago would have increased by roughly 75%. I think this is a strong indication of the amount of activity in this area of numismatics. Another factor to show the increase in this broad based Modern Chinese market are auction companies. There are several companies either dedicating an entire auction to Modern Chinese coins or having a large section of Modern Chinese coins in their auction catalog. This was not the case back in the years 2000 - 2007. The Modern Chinese area of the coin market keeps growing. The more it grows results in more coins being taken off the market and resting in the hands of collectors/investors. As coins are taken off the market, prices rise because these coins are more difficult to find ( basic theory of supply and demand.) When these coins are offered or auctioned, the prices everyone is willing to pay increases due to fewer pieces available. Be prepared, we are 5 weeks away from leaving the summer slow down and heading into the major buying/selling time of late August through May. I believe much higher prices will be seen in the next six months. At the end of this year marks the 100th Anniversary of the 1911 Revolution. That's right, 1911 was the year of the Revolution. There are coins to commemorate this event in history in 1981, 1991, etc... My favorite is the 1991 Sun Yat-Sen four coin set. This is an important event and will be celebrated later this year. This will have a positive affect on the Modern Chinese coin market. Next year is the year of the Dragon. I think all current Year of The Dragon years have been great years for Modern Chinese coins. Next year should be no different. Perhaps the stage has been set for another run at huge price increases. Pandas, Lunars, Unicorns, etc... Everything with relatively low mintages will continue to shine. Please contact us with any questions. COLLECT - INVEST - HAVE FUN.........................
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