We are living in crazy times.  When in history has almost every government been in financial trouble and every currency becoming weaker and weaker?  All you hear about is budget deficits, bailouts and gold hitting new highs.

This is my opinion about coin pricing, right or wrong.  I will explain how this affects the Modern Chinese coin market.

The US stock market is highly manipulated.  Money is being pumped into the market to keep it moving forward and gain consumer confidence.  This is a recipe for trouble.  Good money is being poured into assets that cannot sustain the pricing levels over time.  Sooner or later I feel there has to be a fairly substantial correction.  We are heading into an election year, so I would imagine the current administration will do everything possible to make this last, if they can. 

At the same time, I believe the price of Gold and Silver is trying to be supressed by the financial institutions.  As you can see, they have been unsuccessful.  Face it, the higher the precious metals climb, the more attention they get and this shows the lack of confidence in our economy and the weakening  dollar.   

Our debt has reached the maximum level.  All you hear about is the approximate 14.3 Trillion Dollar debt ceiling that must be voted to be raised.  This will lead to further consequences that will not be favorable for any of us.  The Chinese have been the largest purchasers of this debt.  We owe China roughly 1.6 Trillion Dollars and growing.  

This is what 1.6 Trillion Dollars looks like when expressed with commas and a decimal point $1,600,000,000,000.00  Do you realize this is 13 digits in front of the decimal point!

A struggling economy with the highest debt ever ( with our largest debt being owed to China,) an arranged leveraged stock market, weak dollar and precious metals gaining new highs coupled with a strong China economy growing at roughly 8+% with the RMB getting stronger against the weakening dollar. 

How does this affect Modern Chinese coins?  It is simple.  The Chinese middle class is growing and the wealthy are getting wealthier.  People have much more disposable income.  This sets the stage for why Modern Chinese coins have been in a bull market.   

The collector/investor base has become larger and more broad based.  This is healthy and supports all of the previous price increases and the increases projected in the future.  These rare coins are not common and have the masses fighting to own these low mintage coins.  The average age of the Chinese collector/investor is much younger (about 15 years younger) than the age of the typical US collector/investor.  These Modern Chinese coins are being purchased throughout the world, not just China.  Gold keeps increasing making it more attractive for new people to enter the market.  Where else can you put your money in a collectible and have the opportunity to have a large appreciation in value, while at the same time you can enjoy the fun of collecting?  It is all about the collection, the appreciation is bonus.  All of the pieces of the puzzle seem to fit and it works and keeps working.  Modern Chinese coins 1979 - Present have continued to provide great fun collecting/investing for so many people.  

It seems like the summer slow down has not really been that slow.  What was interesting while visiting the Shanghai market, I do not remember seeing any Proof Gold Pandas from 1995 or 1996.  When I do not see a coin that I consider to be an important coin that should be in each collection, this means the price of these coins is likely to increase. 

The amount of 1 oz Gold Unicorns were virtually non existent in this large market.  Once again, if I do not see many of a core coin that should be in every collection, this usually means the price of these coins is likely to increase.  The updated population reports have revealed the following - 1 oz Gold Unicorns have much lower mintage figures than originally thought.  I am told the real mintage and survival rate for these coins is as follows:

1994 - just over 800 pieces
1995 - just over 510 pieces
1996 - just under 1000 pieces 

It does not take many collectors to remove most of these from the market.  This supports much higher prices in the future. 

All of these variables support a continued bull market for Modern Chinese Coins.  I hope you enjoyed this blog.  Please contact me at npb@MajesticRarities.com if you have any questions.

                                          COLLECT - INVEST - HAVE FUN.............